What Can We Learn From Havergal’s Mock Election Results?

At Havergal, students don’t often get a chance to express their political opinions. The recent mock election, which was a good opportunity to do so, passed by far too quickly, without proper analysis. To gain insight into students’ diverse perspectives and their concerns beyond the ivy walls, the school must take a deeper look into the mock election results. Why did students vote the way they did? What influenced them? What issues do they care about the most? Were they informed enough to make a good choice? To answer these questions, a survey was sent out to students in Grades 7 to 12. It’s important to note, however, that the respondents’ opinions do not necessarily reflect the entire student body’s. We cannot draw any definitive conclusions from such a small sample of the school.

The Liberal Party won the popular vote overall in Havergal’s election. They were the most popular party among Grades 7, 10, and 12, whereas the Conservative Party outperformed the Liberals in Grades 8, 9, and 11. Additionally, Grades 10 and 11 had the most Green and New Democratic Party (NDP) voters. The actual federal election resulted in a Liberal minority government, even though the Conservatives won the popular vote. A significant point of discussion was that the ridings in Alberta and Saskatchewan were almost all Conservative, showing an increasing divide between these provinces and the rest of Canada.

Havergal’s mock election survey asked for students’ reasoning behind voting for one party over another. One reason students voted  for the Liberal Party was their climate action plan, which many respondents deemed better than that of the Conservative Party. Additionally, a staggering number of respondents said they voted Liberal because they disliked Conservative leader Andrew Scheer, due to his pro-life beliefs and past comments on the LGBTQ+ community. Similarly, Conservative voters said that they disliked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Others said that they liked the Conservative Party’s economic policies and were concerned about the national debt. Respondents who voted NDP did so because of the controversy surrounding Trudeau, and they saw the  NDP as more inclusive. Both NDP and Green voters liked their chosen party’s stance on environmental action. 

When asked if there was anything they disliked about the party they voted for, Liberal voters cited Trudeau’s blackface and brownface incidents, as well as Canada’s debt. Respondents who voted Conservative disliked their climate policy, while NDP voters did not have any major criticisms of the party. Green voters noted that their preferred party had almost no chance of winning, and one even said that they would probably vote strategically for the Liberals in a real first-past-the-post election. As for respondents who did not vote, they did so because they thought that they were not well-informed enough.  

Similar to actual voters in the federal election, many students seem to have voted against the party they disliked rather than for the one they truly supported. The strategy of voting for the “least bad” party was fairly common as well. This may not mean much in a mock election, but it is quite concerning for real elections—today, and in the future—because it suggests that party leaders haven’t been successful in capturing Canadians’ voices, and that Members of Parliament may not accurately represent their ridings. For example, if many citizens who support the NDP vote Liberal to prevent the Conservative Party from winning, and Liberal candidates win their ridings, their MPs in Ottawa will not represent their views. The true opinions of a significant number of Canadians will not be expressed in Parliament, and the government may not be able to make decisions that benefit as many people as possible. 

Next, the survey asked participants about their exposure to information about the election on various platforms. According to the survey, most Liberal, NDP, and Green voters did at least a little bit of research on the parties on their own time. Conservative respondents did less of their own research, possibly because they were largely influenced by their parents, and may not have felt the need to look to other sources for more information. Additionally, the total number of respondents who regularly look at the news on traditional outlets, like TV channels, was nearly equal to the number of those who do not. About 80% of total respondents said that they saw posts on social media regarding the election and Canadian politics, with NDP voters seeing the most. Because a major part of the NDP’s base is young voters, the party may have put greater effort into their social media presence, and more of their supporters may have shared their political views on those platforms. Those who did not vote had less exposure to political news and social media posts, and many did not do their own research, explaining why they felt that they were not adequately informed.

The participants were then asked how much traditional news outlets, social media, and parents influenced their decision. The results showed that generally, parents and traditional news outlets had a stronger influence on the students than social media. While Conservative voters were most strongly influenced by their parents, Liberal, NDP, and Green voters said the news affected them the most. In addition, respondents who voted NDP or Green were the least influenced by their parents. 

Finally, the survey asked respondents to choose multiple topics that they found most important from a list of seven key election issues. Climate change was voted the most significant issue, chosen by a whopping 82% of respondents. Even Conservative voters chose it as their top concern, even though their chosen party is often criticized for their lackluster climate plan. Next in line were immigration (46.4%) and affordable housing (37.5%). The answers given by  Liberal, NDP, and Green voters were similar, as they were for many other questions.

Based on the questions in this survey, there is notable overlap between the views of Liberal, NDP, and Green voters, which is understandable considering all three parties are quite progressive. Additionally, it seems that Havergal students, in general, were not thoroughly informed on the parties and election issues. Many respondents said that they did not know what to say for the open-response questions on the survey. Only a few people mentioned the minority government when asked about their thoughts on the election results, and nobody spoke about the political divide between the Conservative West and the more left-leaning provinces. About 61% of the respondents did not believe students were well-informed enough to make good decisions when voting, while 38% were unsure. To be fair, these students are still quite young, and they have a few more years until they will be able to vote in a real election. Hopefully, Havergal students will work to better inform themselves during those years and form their personal opinions.